The "NAES Macroeconomic Situation Quarterly Analysis Meeting (2nd Quarter 2018)" jointly organized by the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the Xinhua News Agency "Economic Information Daily" and the China Social Science Press was held in Beijing on the 3rd. The Financial and Economic Research Group report released at the analysis meeting predicts that GDP will increase by 6.7% in the second quarter of 2018 and the annual economic growth will be 6.6%. The report suggests that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to combine the structural reforms of the supply side with the continuous expansion of domestic demand to resolve the potential risks of the economy and enhance the potential for sustainable economic development.

The report believes that China is trade surplus has narrowed, which has a certain drag on GDP data. The data show that in 2017, the improvement of foreign trade was an important contribution to China is economic recovery. Net exports boosted GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points in the year, compared with a negative contribution of 1.1% in 2016. However, in the first quarter of 2018, net exports of goods and services drove GDP growth and turned negative, dragging GDP by 0.6 percentage points.

Wang Hongjun, deputy director and researcher of the Comprehensive Economic Strategy Research Department of the Financial and Economic Research Institute, said in a question to the reporter of the Economic Information Daily that China should focus on strengthening industrial transformation and upgrading, improve the position of China is products in the global industrial chain, and increase the added value of products. Increase export profits.

The manufacturing PMI declined in June compared to May, but it is still at 51.5%. At the same time, the non-manufacturing PMI and the construction industry PMI have even rebounded, indicating that the current overall economic environment is not affected by the negative factors of internal and external demand. Wang Hongyu said that with the deepening of structural reforms on the supply side, industrial production is stable and stable, industrial economic structure is optimized, efficiency is improved, employment is stable, and favorable factors supporting the stability of the industrial economy are increasing.

Regarding how to deal with the external pressures of the international economic situation and the current outstanding problems, the Task Force proposes to combine the structural reforms of the supply side and the continuous expansion of domestic demand in the second half of the year; unswervingly expand the reform and opening up and actively respond to Sino-US trade. Disputes; continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, increase tax cuts and fee reductions, speed up expenditures; maintain a stable and neutral monetary policy and ample liquidity; improve macro-prudential supervision policies, promote credit, stock market, bond market, foreign exchange market, property market healthy growth. Resolve potential risks of the economy and enhance the potential for sustainable economic development.

由中国社会科学院财经战略研究院、新华社《经济参考报》和中国社会科学出版社共同举办的“NAES宏观经济形势季度分析会（2018年2季度）”于3日在京举行。分析会上发布的财经院课题组报告预计，2018年二季度GDP增长6.7%，全年经济增长6.6%。报告建议，下半年要把加快推进供给侧结构性改革与持续扩大内需结合起来，化解经济潜在风险，增强经济可持续发展的潜力。

报告认为，上半年我国经济供给侧继续保持稳中有进态势，但需求侧如投资等部分宏观指标下降较多，经济预期分歧加大。预计2018年二季度及上半年经济增长6.7%，比一季度略降0.1个百分点；三季度经济增长6.6%；四季度经济增长回落至6.5%。预计全年经济增长6.6%。

报告认为，我国贸易顺差收窄，对GDP数据有一定拖累。数据显示，2017年，对外贸易的改善是中国经济回升的重要贡献，当年净出口拉动GDP增长0.6个百分点，相比2016年的负贡献上升了1.1%。但2018年一季度，货物和服务净出口拉动GDP增长又转为负值，拖累GDP0.6个百分点。

财经院综合经济战略研究部副主任、研究员汪红驹接受《经济参考报》记者提问时表示，下一步我国应着力加强产业转型升级，提高我国产品在全球产业链中的位置，增加产品附加值，从而增加出口利润。

报告指出，上半年制造业和非制造业PMI总体稳定，都处于景气区间。6月份，制造业PMI为51.5%，比上个月回落0.4个百分点，仍高于上半年均值0.2个百分点；非制造业PMI为55.0%，比上个月上升0.1个百分点，高于上半年均值0.2个百分点，总体保持平稳向好的发展势头。

6月份制造业PMI相较5月有所下滑，但仍在51.5%的水平。同时，非制造业PMI以及建筑业PMI甚至出现回升，表明当前整体的经济环境受内外需负面因素的拖累尚不明显。”汪红驹表示，随着供给侧结构性改革的深入推进，工业生产稳中向好，工业经济结构优化、效益改善，就业稳定，支撑工业经济稳中向好的有利因素不断增多。

对于如何应对国际经济形势的外部压力和当前面临的突出问题，课题组建议，下半年要把加快推进供给侧结构性改革与持续扩大内需结合起来；坚定不移扩大改革开放，积极应对中美贸易争端；继续实施积极的财政政策，加大减税降费力度，加快支出进度；保持货币政策稳健中性和流动性合理充裕；完善宏观审慎监管政策，推动信贷、股市、债市、汇市、楼市健康发展。化解经济潜在风险，增强经济可持续发展的潜力。

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